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Brighter Stock Market Forecast
The 30 mega cap Dow Jones index hit its all time mid day, gaining 120 points yesterday and Dow futures are up again tonight.
NASDAQ and S&P 500 lifted until mid day as well before sliding. Excellent earnings reports, softer inflation reports, and okay jobless report buoyed the markets. Yet supply chain woes and rising oil prices are beginning to scare investors. WTI Oil price has hit $84.25 yesterday which may be deflating stock futures tonight.
Last week, investors seemed undeterred by Fed tapering, rising bond prices, supply woes, American vaccination rate, rising energy prices, and government debt and deficits, and the bull run continues. They’re seeking euphoria. Looking for the latest stock prices and best stocks to buy? See below.
More experts believe inflation might not be so transitory and energy prices could make this a painful winter for consumers. However, analysts such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believe the big rally is on and he’s confident Bitcoin price will hit $100k. It hit $66,000 today after being buoyed by the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was announced. A bitcoin forecast price of $100k isn’t outlandish now and experts believe Coinbase is a good bet too. The only stock that disappointed was Tesla.
Definitely, the oil and gas markets are the big topic as we enter winter. Millions of people can’t afford high nat gas prices and economic issues will come to a boil soon. The chart below shows the rally might on and we could have passed the correction risk. It’s a good time for Fed tapering to begin.
Yahoo Finance reported that Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley-National, said “What we have done, in large part, by having massive aggregate demand outpacing aggregate supply is likely not destroyed demand. We likely delayed demand… And I think that elongates the economic cycle into ’22.” That makes a strong stock market forecast for 2022 in the US, but perhaps not as bright a China stock market forecast.
Forecasts Galore!
If the US government and GOP stay calm, we’ll only suffer a slow 3 month period and then it’s back to the races for the next 6 months, next 5 years and next 10 years. The forecast for Monday opening and next week is to the upside. Earnings reports are coming in stronger than predicted.
A few Democrats are saying they won’t support the 2500 page spending bill so the $3.5 Trillion big spending party won’t happen. If the Dems don’t back down on the ludicrous items (social infrastructure) they want to spend on, a debt default in December is likely. They could be doing this to avoid the debt ceiling crunch 7 weeks from now.
We spoke of the stock market crash catalyst and right now, that catalyst is political. Explore the crash signals that may play into how long you’ll be keeping your stocks. See the 5 year and 10 year forecast and starting thinking deeper into the future. That day will come.
Combine the unsettled activity this week with lower consumer confidence, debt ceiling defaults, political gamesmanship, persistent inflation, high energy prices, out of reach housing prices, fears of rising interest rates, reduced Fed spending, and a prolonged pandemic slowdown, and you can understand why markets might sag.
However, predictions still say 2022 will be a very good year. The pandemic ruined the 2019 party, but it will disappear globally by next spring as more vaccines are issued. That means you might want to be ready to buy this next big dip and find the best stocks to buy. Check out the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ posts for opportunities, and discover more about Bitcoin, Tesla, Apple, Oil stocks, and the 2022 best picks page for more great stocks to buy.
Although markets sprung back from the recent dip, there is plenty more volatility coming in the next 6 months. October is often a bad month, but again, it creates buying opportunities. So, for smart investors, it’s more like a feast!
Stock Market Oct 20, 2021:
If we get past this week and next week, and the next 3 months, the 6 month spring 2022 and 10 year stock market outlook is positive. Oil prices are a tremendous opportunity for investors right now as WTI rises above $84. Will it hit $100 during the winter months as winter enters and the global economy continues to improve.
S&P 500 : 4,536 ↑
Dow Jones 30 : 35,609 ↑
Nasdaq : 15,121 ↑
Russell 2000 : 2,289 ↑
Crude Oil : $84.25 per barrel ↑
Gold : $1,788 per ounce ↓
US Dollar : $93.51 ↓
Utilities, energy and real estate lead the way on Tuesday. Watch oil stocks again this week. Of course, check out the today’s Bitcoin price too and review Bitcoin stocks.
The question will be about how and if the US economy can regain its competitiveness. China’s financial and political tensions are beginning to push manufacturing out of China and back to the US. The supply chain woes (oil, microchips, electronic products) could affect supply for more than a year. Right now, containers are stuck in US ports and can’t be returned to China. The supply issue could contribute to significant inflation. A shortage of 80,000 truck drivers is further undermining timely supply to retail markets.
The direction of the US dollar will be important for the 5 Year Forecast. and the 10 year forecast. The outlook is for a rising dollar which will erode US competitiveness, particularly with China. The role of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency may play into US dollar value and into US competitiveness. See the Bitcoin Forecast.
The ending of Federal stimulus checks for tens of millions of Americans is without a doubt affecting sales and consumer confidence. Then there’s inflation and government shutdowns ahead. It’s a bad time for negativity as we enter the holiday shopping season.
Below, you’ll find more charts, data, and insights about the best stocks to buy, and links to valuable resources to help invest wiser and a simple, clear fashion. Data changes week to week and can be a source of confusion.
For the 6 Month and Long Term Forecast
This week’s volatility may be the new norm, however that does appeal to day traders and those buying on the dip.
Make the next 6 months forecast a study, but don’t take your eye off the ball for the 5 year to 10 year outlook and the 2022 picture . With oil reaching near $80 a barrel now, Oil stocks look good for the next few years. Is Bitcoin a serious investment possibility? It’s up to $50k again. Find out what’s driving the price of Bitcoin.
Stock Market Performance This Week
Today, and this week, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq rose, and word is, that small caps have a better outlook. The Russell 2000 and the small caps are suffering due to the slow pandemic recovery, less travel than expected (Delta variant) and the well publicized high infection rates in some states.
During the last two weeks, a number of key companies in the markets have reported earnings including Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook all reported big jumps in Q2 earnings. Google has consistently beat earnings expectations and the result is continued upward pressure on Google stock price.
And the meaning of new infrastructure isn’t appreciated as much as it should. If the US wants to keep its competitive trade possession and ween off of China, it must have a similar modern economic and business infrastructure. The Republicans claim private business will invest, but such trillion dollar investments can only come from the government. If Biden can get this through, it will mean a big boost of confidence in the United States.
Here’s your top Mega caps:
See more on the best picks for 2022 and best tech stocks to buy and which stocks you may want to part with. Why 2023? 2023 is the year we see interest rates rise and government stimulus easing and quantitative easing finally ending. It can’t go on forever.
Which oil stocks and gold stocks might be a good choice? If the 3 year, 5 year or 10 year outlook is your interest, you should definitely research 5G stocks. 5G technology will underpin more of the consumer and business communications market. It’s high speed with anywhere connectivity and is spawning many new for profit business models.
What are the Biggest Threats to the Stock Market?
Stock market investors and those invested in the real estate market are trying to visualize the key threats that might cause a lot of pain. If you read the stock market crash report, you’ll get a good look at all the crash signals and factors that may lead to big investment losses. Pay attention to those stocks that might be good hedges against a correction or downturn and which securities you should not buy.
Aside from inflation, and high gasoline prices, the biggest risk now may be trade with the Chinese communist government. The US and China have intertwined their economies which could be bad news if China should run its ship aground. Trust in China is very low and the communists decision style is autocratic and sudden such as the regulatory demands this month. Not good for fragile trade relations and investment.
Please do familiarize yourself with all the threats to the market whether you believe in a crash coming or not. The 2022 mid term senate elections will be a critical test of American’s patience. At that time, all of border migration, inflation, housing issues will come crashing down on domestic markets and stock prices.
Will There Be a Stock Market Crash?
Within a realistic outlook, a stock market crash seems unlikely, however you should still be up on all the factors as they change and combine to present threats to the markets. Choosing stocks that will survive a crash is good and you should know more how to hedge a crash as smart management of your IRA, 401k or RRSP.
Predictions: As for today and tomorrow, next 3 months, next 6 months, or next year, the outlook is positive but maybe not to the satisfaction of some investors. With such bubbly activity, the worry is a high speed wobble (volatility) and a crash of the stock markets, and perhaps even crashing the housing market. This turbulence will reach the housing market and encourage homeowners to sell their house fast.
Retail sales rose only .6% in June, so it looks like the great overheating is overdone. GDP for the first quarter was up 6.4%. The economy may be growing at above 10% rate this 2nd quarter. The cyclical change is still rolling along which is why investors are feeling confident. However, there’s a lot of phoniness in this market with Tesla, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, AMC and other stocks flying high.
Which are the best stocks to buy today/tomorrow or in the next 6 to 9 months? Which will be hottest stocks during the coming fall season? There are other stocks not reflected in today’s hot Wtd Alphas but will perform well in 2022.
Best Stocks to Buy?
Everyone’s focus is always on which are the best stocks to buy right now. It’s all about picking winners in this market.
Top Performing Stocks Year to Date
These best performing stocks this year might reveal some potential buys. Those in the energy sector might be your best 2 year performers with travel and industry starting up again in 2022.
Top Losing Stocks
Red is never a good color in business or finance. Here’s a quick look at the worst performers, stocks you shouldn’t buy. Beware of biopharma, therapeutics and bioscience stocks. It’s wise to note which stocks really sink when investors feel good.
Looking for good stocks to buy? See more on 5G stocks , FAANGs, top stocks for your 401k investment. See more about Google stock price Apple Stock price Facebook stock price , and Amazon stock price.
Best Tech Stocks to Buy
Pick the best tech stocks including AMD, Autodesk, Verisign, Salesforce, Adobe, Qualcomm and Keysight Technologies.
Best ETFs?
Those investors unable to pick big winning individual stocks are turning to ETFs in droves. The new Bitcoin ETF has caught their fancy and oil etfs have too.
Investu says you can avoid picking individual inflation boosted stocks by investing in these funds:
- IShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (NYSE: GSG)
- Global X Internet of Things ETF (Nasdaq: SNSR)
- Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE: VNQ)
- Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB)
- SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)
Tech has been hot. Investors should investigate the best tech stocks, including Facebook, Amazon and Tesla. Tesla is up $21 in the last 2 day. Check out the oil stocks, 5G stocks and find those that are ready rise in value.
US GDP to Grow 7.9% in 2021
US Gross Domestic production grew 6.4% in the 1st quarter, and 6.6% in Q2, no doubt meeting the approval of investors. However, GDP forecast for 2022 is 3.52%.
Is anything still holding back the stock markets right now? Three things: resistance to $5 Trillion spending plan, Fed tapering, and the belief that interest rates have to go up sometime. Smart investors look 6 months to 5 years down the road to when today’s decisions will be experienced in reality.
Inflation a Threat on the Horizon?
Recent reports of up to 7% inflation in July are alarming, but some experts believe it is transitory. However, with $5 Trillion in government spending forecast through stimulus, the already inflated money supply has to push prices up further. The housing market surged along with previous spending.
“With the economic outlook brightening, Covid-19 cases falling and more fiscal stimulus on the horizon, nervousness about inflation is percolating. That means pricing power is set to become an intriguing alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it” according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
Everyone seems to believe inflation is going to be an issue for the economy and for listed companies. Here’s a few stocks CNBC/Insider Monkey believes will weather the inflation storm:
- Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)
- AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T)
- Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW)
- Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG)
- Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)
- Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ: ETSY)
- Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM)
- Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)
- Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL)
- Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE)
- The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)
- Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE: ASPN)
- Zoetis Inc. (NYSE: ZTS)
Positive Factors taking the Stock Markets Higher?
We’re wondering which factors can lift the stock market further upward or whether we’re on a downward trajectory? There is a lot of cash available for spending and consumers are going to spend plenty with the fading of Covid 19. The antivax movement is weak and will put a strain on enthusiasm and hospital budgets. The hospitals may not be upset about the extra business, but it may hold back how they typically make their earnings (surgeries, treatments).
- economy had a solid 6.6% growth in the 2nd quarter 2021
- inflation rises and low interest rates pushing treasury and bond prices down
- markets climbed as investors seem optimistic
- corporate earnings will sour in the 4th quarter
- Fed says they’re not going to raise rates, and may not for years
- $5 trillion sitting in money markets
- Oil prices rising which means higher gasoline prices and transportation and manufacturing costs
- S&P, and Dow, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 still have room to grow
- new government injecting possibly $5 trillion into the economy?
- Covid pandemic persists causing more economic damage
- jobs reports okay but not great
- earnings reports so far are strong
5 Year Long Term Forecast is Optimistic
Just a little discussions on the 5 year stock market forecast (and 5 year housing market forecast ) look really good too because the American consumer is well employed as business is rebuilt from the ground up. Intent to buy homes is strong and construction rates will grow fast through the coming spring as labor and supply shortages ease.
The latest US jobs report is good. The 2022 to 2026 5 year projections are not priced into the market, but instead is focused on current earnings/sales and wishful thinking over the 5 year term.
10 year Forecast is Still Promising
Check the 10 year stock outlook and you’ll see debt management concerns for the US government amidst a need to raise interest rates. The 10 year stock market journey will put the focus back on global growth.
Bank and Broker Forecasts
Goldman Sachs projects GDP will grow at a 5.3% pace through 2021 (so far so good) and predicts a lower unemployment rate at 5.3%. They expect the S&P to rise 17% to 4,300 points, driven by an expected 30% growth in corporate earnings.
Those US companies are becoming lean and powerful, and those who survive the pandemic will be unusually competitive in 2021. The question for some investors is whether airlines, cruise lines, hotels and other sectors are good long term buying opportunities, or whether buying more Tesla, Facebook and Amazon stock is the safer route. Some believe they’re a good buy during a coming market correction. Buy the correction they say.
Final thought? 2022 looks really good, but if global markets crash due to lingering Covid infections, a stock market crash and housing market crash would be simultaneous. Optimism is a great catalyst, but you can see how periodic reality reaches the investor masses once in a while. Let’s cross our fingers for smooth sailing ahead.
Yes, with US wages growing, unemployment low, and interest rates remaining low, you have strong evidence that Google stock price, Facebook stock price, Apple Stock Price, and Amazon stock price growth will continue in 2021. Tesla stock price is on fire.
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