Realtor.com:
Forget about the bright lights of downtown or the idyllic dream of suburbia—Americans are voting for the exurbs with their feet.
Last year, the top five counties for population growth through moving were all on the far outskirts of major cities in Florida and Texas, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
Although the census does not specifically define “exurbs,” the term generally refers to areas beyond a city’s immediate ring of suburbs, but still tied to the main metro economically and culturally.
Exurbs can be as far as 60 miles away from their anchor city, making commuting possible, if lengthy. Such regions have benefited from the rise of hybrid work, reducing the number of days many workers need to appear in the office each week.
Last year, Florida’s Polk County gained the most residents out of any U.S. county through moving, with nearly 30,000 more people moving in than out.
Located between Tampa and Orlando and bisected by the interstate connecting the two cities, Polk County could be considered an exurb of either.
Polk County’s largest city, Lakeland, is about 35 miles from Tampa and 60 miles from Orlando, putting the amenities of both cities within reach, including Tampa’s NFL and NHL teams and Orlando’s NBA team.
Yet homes in Lakeland remain significantly more attainable, with a median listing price of $343,000 there last month, compared with $399,900 in Tampa and $425,000 in Orlando, according to Realtor.com economic research.
The area was mostly orange groves 50 years ago. It has since experienced explosive growth, particularly in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic, says Brian Stephens, a real estate agent in Lakeland and team leader with eXp Realty.
“It seems like the traffic has doubled in the last four years, really. So it’s been pretty crazy, but we’ve seen a lot of growth,” he says. “I love the growth. I’ve been here my whole life. So as a real estate agent, you’re like, ‘Let’s go. Keep them coming.’”
Stephens says he fields homebuyer inquiries from across the country, recently including a couple who moved from North Dakota for work at an area flight school, and executives relocating to supermarket chain Publix’s headquarters in Lakeland.
Other buyer interest originates from hurricane-weary residents of Florida’s coastlines, and Stephens says he continues to get calls from New Yorkers, who descended on the Sunshine State in the aftermath of the pandemic.
“You’ll still get a handful of calls from the 646 area code,” says Stephens. “I’m like, ‘Oh, here’s another New Yorker that wants to move to Florida.’”
Search data from Realtor.com shows that Manhattan was the top location for home listing page views in Polk County during the latest period covered by the census data, from mid-2022 to mid-2023.
Nearly 13% of all listing views for Polk County homes came from Manhattan during that period, followed by 7% from Hillsborough County, FL, which includes Tampa, and 5% from Orange County, FL, which is centered on Orlando.
Other fast-growing exurbs
The rest of the five fastest-growing counties for the period covered by the census data are also exurbs of major cities in the South.
They are Collin County, TX (on the outskirts of Dallas), Montgomery County, TX (north of Houston), Pasco County, FL (outside Tampa), and Denton County, TX (northwest of Dallas).
From July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, the period covered by the census data, Collin County gained 28,886 new residents from net migration, or the number of people moving in minus the number moving out.
In the same period, Montgomery County gained 27,866 new residents, Pasco County grew by 25,441, and Denton County added 23,090.
Those figures do not include natural population change through births and deaths. Although they include both international and domestic migration, in each case, domestic moves accounted for the vast majority of the increases.
Search traffic on Realtor.com indicates that much of the interest in homes in these counties comes from within the same state.
“These five fastest-growing counties are all on the outskirts of major Florida and Texas metros, and they all draw considerable home shopper traffic from in state rather than out of state,” says Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner.
“Floridians and Texans are facing the same affordability challenges that prospective homebuyers face across the country, and many of them are now looking outside major city limits to find a home that fits their budget,” he adds.
“Many have flexible work arrangements that make longer commutes into town less of an issue, and they find that they can get more bang for their buck by buying in these outlying counties.”
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