NoradaRealEstate.com:
Record-low mortgage rates and shortage of inventory are keeping the US housing market strong concerning buyer demand. Prices have been surging month-over-month breaking new records. Will the housing market crash? Let’s look at the most recent housing market trends and predictions for 2021 and 2022. We will discuss current overall real estate trends, price and rent increases, housing sales and supply, mortgage rates and delinquencies, and other key industry takeaways and insights into the US housing market.
This year’s real estate market has been exceptionally strong, with strong housing demand in virtually every region of the country. A strengthening economy and millennials nearing their peak homebuying years are fueling a residential housing boom. Low mortgage rates, combined with an increase in work-from-home opportunities as a result of the pandemic, have fueled a surge in housing demand, particularly in lower-density suburbs. Buyers are driving up home prices in the 2021 housing market, causing homes to sell quickly.
Some hyperactive buyers make offers without seeing the property and forego contingencies to win bidding wars in the highly competitive housing market. The historically low mortgage rates have fueled an increase in demand, particularly among millennials. However, they are running into a shortage of available housing. Many buyers are still in the hope of finding a home that fits their budget and needs. Despite popular belief that now is not a good time to buy, many home buyers are looking to lock in their monthly housing payments by taking advantage of still-low mortgage rates.
However, in this hot real estate market, it’s difficult for buyers to find a good deal, especially with the typical asking price rising by double digits. Although the housing market is still expected to favor sellers we appear to be at a tipping point in the housing market, where prices have risen so dramatically that buyers are backing off and home sales are slowing down. According to Realtor.com, the median national home price for active listings in June was $385,000, a 12.7 percent increase from the previous year. The annual price growth rate has slowed for the second month in a row. The annual median home price growth rate in May was 15.2 percent, down from 17.2 percent in April.
The decline in time-on-market has slowed for the first time in nearly four months, indicating that some properties are sitting on listing portals for a little longer. These market trends point to a positive development for buyers as we enter the crucial home buying season of 2021. Additionally, compared to last year, the number of newly listed properties is also increasing, and the sharp inventory losses of recent months have moderated. The net result has been a deceleration in the growth of listing prices. While home prices are still rising at a double-digit rate, they have passed their peak growth rates.
The popular belief is that it is a good time to sell and that ultimately means that the numbers of home sellers that hit the market are constantly increasing. These latest market trends (seen in May/June) point to a shift in real estate activity, implying that we may have passed the peak of this hot housing market, which is good news for home buyers. The market is still heavily skewed toward sellers, but we may be seeing the first signs of a return to a more balanced real estate market following the most active sales period in years.
As of today, the housing market remains far from normal, with inventories falling by more than 38% a year and historical declines. The current supply of homes on the market is at an all-time low, dating back to the turn of the century. With the recovering economy, more buyers are entering the market. And, because there is still a limited supply of housing inventory, home prices continue to rise even in a low-interest-rate scenario.
With increased supply, home price growth will gradually moderate, but a broad price decline is unlikely. The housing market will continue to attract buyers as a result of the drop in mortgage rates as well as an increase in new listings. As the late summer approaches, the months ahead contain critical clues to the post-pandemic future of the housing market. If sales continue to boost recent growth, despite the rising inventory, it should increase builders’ confidence and persuade them that high housing demand is not a short-term phenomenon.
Housing Market Trends: Existing-Home Sales Rebounded in June 2021
- After a four-month drop, housing sales increased in June, and home prices continued to rise to record highs.
- Existing home sales rose 1.4% from May to 5.86 million in June.
- This rise in sales has been attributed to an increase in housing supply.
- NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said supply has ticked up “modestly” in recent months as a result of increased housing starts and more homeowners putting properties up for sale.
- Home prices climbed as well, with the median home price (for all housing types) hitting a new high of $363,300, 23.4 percent more than June 2020.
- This marks 112 straight months of year-over-year gains.
- Nationwide, little less than half of all house sales, or 43 percent, were in the $250,000-500,000 price bracket.
As more homes were listed on the market, existing-home sales in the US housing market climbed for the first time in five months. According to figures provided by the National Association of Realtors, sales are up 22.9 percent over the same period in 2020, despite a modest 1.4 percent increase from May. Since January 1999, it was the second-largest year-over-year (YOY) rise. Record high prices, combined with a scarcity of available homes, are making it especially difficult for first-time buyers to enter an increasingly competitive housing market.
In June, first-time buyers represented roughly a third or 31% of sales, down from 35% last year. Houses are being taken off the market faster, and all-cash sales have increased, accounting for 23% of transactions in June, up from 16% in June 2020. The bulk of houses sold in June, or 89 percent, were on the market for less than a month, selling in 17 days on average, compared to an average of 24 days in May.
Total housing inventory2 at the end of June amounted to 1.25 million units, up 3.3% from May’s inventory and down 18.8% from one year ago (1.54 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, modestly up from May’s 2.5-month supply but down from 3.9 months in June 2020. The National Association of Realtors had released research from the Rosen Consulting Group, estimating that between 5.5 million and 6.8 million new houses are needed to meet the demand.
| Existing Housing Sales in June(Regional Breakdown By N.A.R.) | |
| Northeast | Existing-home sales in the Northeast markets increased 2.8% in June, recording an annual rate of 740,000, a 45.1% rise from a year ago. |
| The median price in the Northeast was $412,800, up 23.6% from June 2020. | |
| Midwest | Existing-home sales in the Midwest markets rose 3.1% to an annual rate of 1,330,000 in June, an 18.8% increase from a year ago. |
| The median price in the Midwest was $278,700, an 18.5% increase from June 2020. | |
| South | Existing-home sales in the South were unchanged from May, posting an annual rate of 2,590,000 in June, up 19.4% from the same time one year ago. |
| The median price in the South was $311,600, a 21.4% climb from one year ago. | |
| West | Existing-home sales in the West rose 1.7%, registering an annual rate of 1,200,000 in June, a 23.7% jump from a year ago. |
| The median price in the West was $505,600, up 24.3% from May 2020. |
Three of the four major U.S. regions registered small month-over-month gains, while the fourth remained flat. However, all four areas notched double-digit year-over-year gains. The South accounted for over half of all the sales in June, accounting for 44 percent, followed by the Midwest at 23 percent and the West at 20 percent, with the Northeast accounting for only 13 percent. Every region saw price increases, but the disparity was most evident in the Northeast, where prices increased 45.1 percent year on year, while other regions had hikes ranging from 18 to 24 percent.
New Residential Home Sales (Describes June 2021)
Sales of new single-family homes fell to a 14-month low in June, and sales in the previous month were lower than expected. The Commerce Department announced the third consecutive monthly fall in sales, following news last week that permits for future homebuilding fell to a nine-month low in June. Sales of new single-family houses decreased to an annualised pace of 676,000, 6.6 percent lower than the rate of 724,000 in May and 19.4 percent lower than the level of 839,000 in June 2020, according to estimates released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Analysts had predicted a 3.4 percent increase in new home sales in June. After a year of frenzied buying and price gains in the double digits, newly built homes are now out of reach for much of the demand that remains in the market.ffter a year of frenzied buying and price gains in the double digits, newly built homes are now out of reach for much of the demand that remains in the market. Higher building costs, longer delivery times, and general unpredictability in the construction supply chain are now having measurable impacts on new home prices.
Softwood lumber increased by more than 300 percent during the epidemic, and while it has dropped considerably in the last month, it is still approximately 75 percent more than the 2019 normal. The median price of a newly built house in June increased 6% from June 2020, and while this is a significant increase historically, it pales in comparison to the 15%-20% yearly growth witnessed in prior months. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2021 was $361,800 while the average sales price was $428,700.
The majority of homebuyers are at the upper end of the market, and builders cannot afford to produce cheaper houses owing to rising building prices. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 353,000. This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate. Because new house sales are recorded when contracts are signed, they are considered a leading housing market indicator. The decrease in new housing sales suggests that demand is diminishing. Applications for house loans have declined this year, as have housing market surveys of potential purchasers. Residential construction had ended in 2020 on a strong note. Housing starts rose 5.8% to 1.67 million annualized units in December. Total starts were 2.8% higher than a year ago.
Housing Construction Trends & Homebuilder Confidence
The NAHB also gets input from builders on how confident they are in the housing market based on buyer behavior, sales, and incorporates any forecasts as well. Building permits have recovered from epidemic lows, and builders are scrambling to close the supply-demand imbalance. They are still optimistic a year after the Covid epidemic brought home development to a halt. Because the current house market continues to suffer from a record low number of listings, they are seeing high demand from potential purchasers.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to meet this housing demand due to supply delivery issues and rising material costs. NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is a gauge of builder opinion on the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. It is a diffusion index, which means that a reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The latest reading of 80 in July, down from 81.00 last month and up from 72.00 one year ago. This is a change of -1.23% from last month and 11.11% from one year ago. is down slightly from last month.
“Builders are contending with shortages of building materials, buildable lots and skilled labor as well as a challenging regulatory environment. This is putting upward pressure on home prices and sidelining many prospective home buyers even as demand remains strong in a low-inventory environment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
The three major HMI indices were mixed in June. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 86, the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped six points to 65 and the gauge charting sales expectations in the next six months posted a two-point gain to 81. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell four points to 75, the Midwest moved one-point lower to 71 and the West posted a two-point decline to 87. The South held steady at 85.
According to the NAHB, lumber prices have skyrocketed, particularly the price of oriented strand board, which has skyrocketed more than 500 percent above its January 2020 level. Despite the soaring lumber prices, demand continues to outpace supply, and shortages in just about every building material category are creating delays for contractors. As builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point to 80 in July, strong buyer demand managed to offset supply-side issues related to building materials, regulation, and labour. NAHB is working with government officials to develop solutions to these sharp price increases which threaten housing affordability across the nation.
In 2021, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts single-family housing starts to be around 1.134 million. And that could just be the beginning, as projections going forward are even rosier: 1.165 million single-family homes in 2022 and 1.210 million in 2023. New home builders will ramp up production to help relieve the shortage of inventory of homes for sale throughout the United States. The added inventory would no doubt aid buyers in their search to secure their dream home, while also helping to ease price increases throughout the country.
According to Urban Land Institute, real estate market conditions and values in the U.S. are expected to rebound in 2021 and trend even higher in 2022, with single-family homes outperforming other sectors such as commercial, retail, hotel, and rental. Home prices will grow an average of 4.1% over the next three years, above the long-term average of 3.9%, according to the report, based on a survey of 43 economists at 37 leading real estate organizations.
Will Rising Mortgage Rates Cool the Housing Market in 2021?
Even though most pandemic restrictions and business reopenings have been suspended, the market remains cautious about the outlook, particularly in light of the health concerns of autumn and winter. Moreover, lack of inventory remains the most significant impediment to home sales, but falling affordability (due to astronomical price increases) is simply driving some first-time buyers out of the market. According to Realtor.com, the typical home listing price touched a new high of $385,000 in June 2021, an increase of about 12 percent over the previous year. Home prices have never dropped, but they were flat this time last year.
However, the rate of home price growth has decreased by 2 percentage points since last month. As inventory continues to dwindle, there is no relief in sight for homebuyers. Before the cooling-off trends begin this fall, the median home price is predicted to reach new highs in the coming months. This year, more homeowners are listing their houses for sale, resulting in a record-high percentage of homes for sale being “new listings.” While the flood of sellers will help alleviate some of the competitive pressure that buyers are under, buyers must still make offers that are strong enough to win out in a multiple-bid scenario.
Mortgage rates have been falling since November 2018, when they peaked at 4.94 percent, a five-year high. The rates were cut in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, which helped to mitigate the impact of increasing prices. In January 2021 it reached a record low of 2.65%, driven by massive monetary incentives and investors’ economic recovery concerns. Rates rebound from their lowest point in the first week of April to 3.18%. The Federal Reserve’s continued monetary easing, and especially the bank’s monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities, is keeping a strong downward pressure on rates.
In 2021, mortgage rates are expected to average 3.1 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors, and 3.3 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. These rate estimates are both up from the 3.0% mortgage rate average in 2020 but lower than 2019 average rates. The amount of time required to save an adequate down payment has increased in recent years, and putting together a down payment remains the most difficult hurdle most buyers will face on their way to homeownership. According to a Zillow analysis of home values and incomes, there are a few silver linings unique to today’s housing market that give first-time buyers a few advantages.
More aggressive savings and/or smaller down payments (buyers can put down as little as 3% in many cases) can significantly shorten the savings time. However, the lower upfront payment comes with higher monthly payments, but for many people, the opportunity to build equity outweighs those extra costs. Also, increased remote work opportunities can lead to more affordable areas, and ultra-low mortgage interest rates can make monthly payments manageable once the down payment is secured.
- First-time buyers today need a year longer to save for a 20% down payment than they did five years ago.
- Renters will need to save an additional $369 per month in the coming year just to keep up with the forecasted growth in home values.
- Most first-time buyers put down less than 20%, but today’s low mortgage rates mean monthly payments can remain affordable with a smaller down payment.
Low rates give borrowers more buying power and a significant decline in mortgage rates can help push up home prices as witnessed in recent months. If mortgage rates continue to rise in 2021, affordability is likely to become a bigger challenge this year. The combination of intense demand and the low mortgage rates has pushed home prices to levels that are making it difficult to save for a down payment, particularly among first-time buyers.
According to Bankrate’s latest survey of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders, as of July 23, 2021, the average rate you’ll pay for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 3.01 percent, a decrease of 3 basis points over the last week. Last month on the 23rd, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 3.13 percent. The average rate for the benchmark 15-year fixed mortgage is 2.31 percent, down 7 basis points from a week ago.
- At the current average rate, you’ll pay $421.60 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow.
- Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost roughly $384 per $100k borrowed.
Note: The larger payment may be more difficult to fit into your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some significant benefits: you’ll save thousands of dollars in total interest paid over the life of the loan and build equity much faster.
Here’s an example to show how soaring home prices and plunging mortgage rates can have offsetting effects. Let’s say you chose to buy a $300,000 home a year ago when the 30-year mortgage rate was around 3.75 percent. Your 20 percent down payment would’ve been $60,000 and your monthly payment would’ve been $1,111. The price of the same house has jumped to $350,000 today. However, you can get a 30-year mortgage at 3.06 percent. As a result, your monthly payment rises only slightly, to $1,189.
However, you’ll have to come up with an extra $10,000 to make a 20 percent down payment. Therefore, low mortgage rates help but don’t eliminate the risk of affordability crunch that the housing market could still face if home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. Buying a home in a seller’s market can feel like you’re losing money. You may just wait a few months or even a year so that prices will flatten (or come down). The problem is that prices could keep rising to the point where you’re priced out of the market. There’s no guarantee either way.
You can opt to refinance at today’s rates to at least cut your monthly mortgage payments. The present scenario makes it appealing to buyers who have been spending all this money on rent. Demand is robust throughout the country, but homebuyers continue to be held back by the lack of homes for sale and rapidly increasing home prices. The combination of rising mortgage rates and increasing home prices will accelerate the decline in affordability and further squeeze potential home buyers during the spring home sales season.
Housing Affordability is driven largely by the gap between household income and home value. It is influenced by the balance between housing supply and demand, the labor market, and mortgage rates by way of Federal monetary policy. Housing is affordable when the housing of an acceptable minimum standard can be obtained and retained leaving sufficient income to meet essential non-housing expenditure.
The most commonly used indicator in the US and many other countries is the ratio of house prices to incomes or earnings. A higher ratio indicates relatively more affordability. A ratio of 100 indicates that median-family income is just sufficient to purchase the median-priced home. Ratios above 100 indicate that the typical household has more income than necessary to purchase the typical house. Therefore, low-income households spending a high proportion of their income on housing may and vice versa.
According to the NAR’s Housing Affordability Index, national housing affordability fell in April compared to a year ago. Affordability fell in April compared to March, as median family income fell by 1.0 percent while monthly mortgage payments rose by 16.1 percent. The effective 30-year fixed mortgage rate1 was 3.11 percent in April, down from 3.37 percent a year ago, but the median existing-home sales price increased 19.9 percent. As of April 2021, the national and regional indices were all above 100, meaning that a family with the median income had more than the income required to afford a median-priced home.
Housing affordability is down in all four regions since last month. The Midwest had the biggest decline of 12.0%, followed by the Northeast, which fell 10.7%. The South region fell 9.8%, followed by the West region, with the smallest decrease of 8.2%. The most affordable region was the Midwest, with an index value of 202.7 (median family income of $87,285, which is more than twice the qualifying income of $43,056). The least affordable region remained the West, where the index was 113.7 (median family income of $95,103 and qualifying income of $83,616).
The Federal Reserve has decided to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged and gave every indication that policy moving forward is going to be largely unchanged. Mortgage rates will be affected by Fed policy only when the Fed stops purchasing MBS (mortgage-backed securities). As of now, Fed continues to take these measures to lower short-term interest rates. Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month to support the U.S. economy and the housing market.
When they refer to agency MBS, they mean specifically purchasing those mortgage-backed securities which are made up of mortgages from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. Expect mortgage rates to continue to hover around record lows. The Federal Reserve has reassured that it will keep interest rates and its bond-buying program unchanged — downplaying any urgency to bring borrowing costs back up from their lowest levels in history at near zero.
The Fed has cut its target for the federal funds rate, the rate banks pay to borrow from each other overnight, by a total of 1.5 percentage points since March 3, 2020, bringing it down to a range of 0% to 0.25%. The federal funds rate is a benchmark for other short-term rates, and also affects longer-term rates, so this move is aimed at lowering the cost of borrowing on mortgages, auto loans, home equity loans, and other loans, but it will also reduce the interest income paid to savers.
READ MORE at NoradaRealEstate.com
